KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.25
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Edge
-1.8
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.89
Hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.2%
Edge
-2.6
L10
70%
AWPer
cmtry
Astralis vs fnatic
LEAN · UNDER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5SL12.5
▲ L5 12.4 · L20 9.8LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.46
Previous meeting · vs fnatic
No meeting with fnatic in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.1
14/18 hit at 12.5
Online
8
2/2 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cmtry is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 37.7% HS): below 0.727 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.89
Raw edge
-2.6
Cons. hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.6
Line
12.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.3%
0 →
Learned
61.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
44.9%314 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 77.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Game script fits: team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.8 headshots vs line 12.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 38%. Next: vs fnatic, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.8 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 9.89 vs line 12.5 → -2.61 (-20.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 45.6 rounds · 2-0 50.1% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.07
HS/Map
4.92
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.6
ADR
64.5
KAST
74.4%
HS%
37.7%
Multi-kill
12.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)5.3 · KPR 0.639 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)4.5 · KPR 0.516 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.727
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.04%
Final projected kills26.25
× realistic HS% (37.7%)9.89
fnatic gives up (79 series)-0.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 77.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.6%
~8 HS · 38r91.2%
Normal48.7%
~10 HS · 46r79.1%
Close maps12.3%
~11 HS · 49r72.7%
Overtime14.4%
~12 HS · 55r58.8%
Match context
Oct 27, 11:00 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
22.2r
+10% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
-11% KPR here
Total
45.6r
2-0 sweep50.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 10.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 49% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 57.2% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 61.3% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 63.7% | |
| 14.5 Under | 65.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 26, 12:13 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.14
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.51
HS%
37.9%
K/D
0.72
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
38.1%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.65
HS%
28.6%
K/D
1.03
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.96
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.51
HS%
37%
K/D
0.69
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.53
HS%
32.1%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.38
HS%
12.5%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | MIBR | 1 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 14-16 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | HOTU | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Ancient 16-14 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | Sashi | 5 Nuke 16-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | FUT | 1 Dust2 10-13 | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 3 Dust2 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 2 Cache 13-10 | 7 Anubis 13-16 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 0 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 4 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Ancient 13-5 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | FUT | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Nuke 12-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 3 Ancient 13-3 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 3 Ancient 13-11 | 3 Nuke 10-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | FUT | 5 Overpass 5-13 | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-5 | 2 Overpass 2-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 1 Anubis 13-11 | 3 Overpass 7-13 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ |
