KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.73
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.7%
Edge
-0.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.61
Hit
57%
EV+
-1.3%
Edge
-0.9
L10
70%
AWPer
r1nkle
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 9.5
BEST UNDER · PP 9.5PP9.5UD8.5
≈ L5 8.6 · L20 8.8Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±2.76
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
2/2 hit · avg 7 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
7
Under 9.5 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
7
Under 9.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.8
13/19 hit at 9.5
Online
8
1/1 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm r1nkle is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.2% HS): below 0.706 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.61
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
57%
EV+
-1.3%
Rating
5.1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57%
0 →
Learned
57%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
51.4%111 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 41.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 43% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.4 headshots vs line 9.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 32%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.4 against a 9.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.61 vs line 9.5 → -0.89 (-9.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
4.38
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.58
ADR
60.6
KAST
73.4%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)4 · KPR 0.597 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)4.6 · KPR 0.684 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills26.73
× realistic HS% (32.2%)8.61
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 63.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~7 HS · 35r80.2%
Normal48.8%
~9 HS · 42r63.8%
Close maps12.3%
~9 HS · 45r56%
Overtime14.4%
~10 HS · 51r40.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 43% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
+15% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 8.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 38.5% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 57% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 61.5% | |
| 11.5 Under | 65.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9→9.5+0.5
- Back on board9 → 9.5Oct 24, 05:16 PM
- Pulled9Oct 24, 11:15 AM
- First seen9Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
36.5%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
30.4%
K/D
1.34
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
35.1%
K/D
1
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.72
HS%
26%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
27.8%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.96
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 7-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 1 Mirage 10-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Dust2 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 3 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Ancient 13-4 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 2 Ancient 13-8 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 2 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 5 Mirage 19-17 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 1 Dust2 9-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 1 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Inferno 19-16 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 9 Anubis 16-12 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 7 Cache 13-5 | 4 Ancient 13-16 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
