KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.73
Hit
46.4%
EV+
-19.6%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.97
Hit
47.2%
EV+
-18.3%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
Rifler
Vexite
FlyQuest vs Staqued
RISK · OVER 17.5
▲ L5 21.4 · L20 19.6
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Staqued
No meeting with Staqued in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.7
5/10 hit at 17.5
Online
20.7
6/9 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Vexite is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 95.2%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS: across ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (75.2%) or blowout (47.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.97
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
47.2%
EV+
-18.3%
Exp. rounds
39.2
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
50.3%453 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.3 headshots vs line 17.5 (6/10 over). Next: vs Staqued, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.3 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.97 vs line 17.5 → +0.47 (2.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Expected 39.2 rounds · 2-0 75.2% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
17.87
HS/Map
9.82
K/D
1.45
ADR
91.3
KAST
79.8%
Multi-kill
21.5%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 95.2%
M1 Ancient
19.4r
M2 Inferno
19.8r
Total
39.2r
2-0 sweep75.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)47.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 4 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 19.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→offno change
- Pulled17.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board17.5 → 17.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen17.5Oct 26, 10:58 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
19.6
K/D
1.5
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
18.6
K/D
1.61
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
16.9
K/D
1.29
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
17.2
K/D
1.11
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
1.7
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14.5
K/D
2.23
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-17 | NEXVOID | 12 Ancient 14-16 | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 13-1 | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 7 Cache 13-8 | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 14 Inferno 19-16 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Abyssal | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 6 Inferno 13-2 | 10 Ancient 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Rooster | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Nuke 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | LFO 8 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Rare Atom | 13 Dust2 19-17 | 16 Anubis 10-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | DEPO | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Kaleido | 8 Cache 13-5 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Rare Atom | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 18 Anubis 16-14 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | NEXVOID | 9 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-19 | Ground Zero | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 7 Nuke 13-1 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
