KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.7
Hit
54.1%
EV+
+1.1%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.74
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-5.4%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
Rifler
nbqq
Brute vs INOX Division
RISK · UNDER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5SL28.5
≈ L5 28.4 · L20 29.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.98
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28
5/9 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
30.5
4/11 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nbqq is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.688 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.7
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
54.1%
EV+
+1.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.1%
-0.6 →
Learned
53.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%405 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.2% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 41.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 41% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.6 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 50%. Next: vs INOX Division, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 29.6 against a 28.5 line
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 27.7 vs line 28.5 → -0.8 (-2.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 55.1% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.7
HS/Map
7.35
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.66
ADR
77.8
KAST
71%
HS%
50%
Multi-kill
15.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)13.4 · KPR 0.669 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.8 · KPR 0.701 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.688
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills28.18
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 58.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.6%
~23 kills · 35r73.7%
Normal41.7%
~28 kills · 43r54.6%
Close maps12.3%
~30 kills · 44r50%
Overtime14.4%
~34 kills · 50r35.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
20.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.2r
+6% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep55.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 29.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 45.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 54.1% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 57.8% | |
| 30.5 Under | 60.9% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
45.5%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.91
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
60%
K/D
0.78
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.85
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 8 Cache 8-13 | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 28 Inferno 19-16 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 21 Dust2 13-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 24 Mirage 10-13 | 45 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 15 Mirage 13-1 | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 12 Cache 16-12 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 26 Anubis 16-14 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 12 Cache 7-13 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 20 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Dust2 13-4 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 7 Mirage 3-13 | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 10 Dust2 5-13 | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
