CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.79
Hit
44%
EV+
-23.7%
Edge
+0.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.83
Hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.8%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%
woxic
AWPer
woxic
Aurora vs The MongolZ
49%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 10
BEST UNDER · PP 10PP10UD9.5
▲ L5 10.8 · L20 9.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 10 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.87
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
1/1 hit · avg 7 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
7
Under 10 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
9.6
8/20 hit at 10
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm woxic is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.2% HS): below 0.687 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.83
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
48.6%
EV+
-15.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
10
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.6%
0 →
Learned
48.6%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 8-12
All players · Headshots
52.2%115 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 49.1% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 45.2 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.3 headshots vs line 9.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 32%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 10.3 against a 9.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 9.83 vs line 10 → -0.17 (-1.7%)
  • • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 52.7% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
4.8
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.66
ADR
70.4
KAST
70.2%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
14.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)5 · KPR 0.67 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)5 · KPR 0.72 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.687
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills31.33
× realistic HS% (32.2%)9.83
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10. Model: 49.1% before the safety haircut.
234567891011121314151617181920line 10
Lopsided maps22.2%
~8 HS · 38r68.2%
Normal42.8%
~10 HS · 45r49.6%
Close maps22.8%
~11 HS · 48r39.9%
Overtime12.2%
~12 HS · 54r26.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
HLTV #5VRS #5HLTV #20VRS #18
Aurora The MongolZ
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
+9% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep52.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10 (Under) · avg 10.3 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
10
Nearby lines
8 Under30.3%below BE
9 Under39.2%below BE
10 Under48.6%OFFERED
11 Under57.4%below BE
12 Under63.9%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10
Line movement
first 9.5→10+0.5
  1. Back on board9.5 → 10
    Oct 24, 10:16 PM
  2. Pulled9.5
    Oct 24, 07:00 AM
  3. First seen9.5
    Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
30.8%
K/D
1.16
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
30%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.6%
K/D
1.33
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
25%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
44.2%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-24The MongolZ1 Inferno 16-126 Nuke 2-137SplitUnder ✓OTBO
2026-10-18Falcons3 Anubis 8-1314 Dust2 19-1717SplitOver ✗OT
2026-10-17FURIA7 Dust2 8-133 Inferno 10-1310LUnder ✗
2026-10-169z5 Cache 13-115 Inferno 13-410WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-15Ninjas in Pyjamas3 Cache 13-97 Dust2 13-710WUnder ✗
2026-10-149z9 Inferno 11-133 Nuke 1-1312LOver ✗BO
2026-10-11Spirit1 Mirage 13-95 Anubis 13-66WUnder ✓
2026-10-10Vitality7 Anubis 13-73 Cache 7-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-10-091win2 Dust2 13-97 Anubis 13-89WUnder ✓
2026-10-06FURIA5 Dust2 8-137 Mirage 13-912SplitOver ✗
2026-10-05BetBoom4 Mirage 13-48 Nuke 7-1312SplitOver ✗BO
2026-10-04Falcons2 Mirage 4-134 Dust2 10-136LUnder ✓BO
2026-10-039z1 Dust2 13-39 Mirage 13-1110WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-20Vitality3 Anubis 4-137 Inferno 13-1110SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-19Vitality4 Anubis 13-76 Inferno 11-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-18NRG3 Cache 13-74 Mirage 19-177WUnder ✓OT
2026-09-17Natus Vincere2 Nuke 13-89 Mirage 13-711WOver ✗
2026-08-31G24 Anubis 13-75 Inferno 16-199SplitUnder ✓OT
2026-08-30M805 Dust2 13-34 Inferno 13-59WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-28DENDELE2 Cache 13-73 Mirage 16-125WUnder ✓OT
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