HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.59
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-11.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%
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Rifler
Zont1x
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 9.5
BEST OVER · UD 9.5PP10UD9.5
▼ L5 7.4 · L20 10.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 9.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.17
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.3
10/20 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 79.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 10+ HS (~24 kills at 41% HS): 0.582 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (60.6%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
9.59
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
47.3%
EV+
-11.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.3%
0 →
Learned
47.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
49.3%140 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 39.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 24% (under 40%) · team 80% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.9 headshots vs line 9.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 41%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.9 against a 9.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.59 vs line 9.5 → +0.09 (0.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 60.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.5
HS/Map
5.12
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.57
ADR
67.9
KAST
70.2%
HS%
41%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)4.5 · KPR 0.55 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)5.1 · KPR 0.634 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.582
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.55
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills23.39
× realistic HS% (41%)9.59
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 9.5. Model: 51.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~8 HS · 33r29.3%
Normal40.6%
~10 HS · 40r49.6%
Close maps27.2%
~10 HS · 43r57%
Overtime7.8%
~12 HS · 49r72.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-7% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.7r
+7% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep60.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Over) · avg 8.9 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Over | 64.6% | |
| 8.5 Over | 59% | |
| 9.5 Over | 47.3% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Over | 34.5% | below BE |
| 11.5 Over | 21.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
41.6%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.9
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.99
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 10 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 3 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Anubis 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 1 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 11-13 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 2 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 1 Ancient 13-10 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 10 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 9 Anubis 16-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 5 Cache 9-13 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Dust2 19-15 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 2 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
