Rifler
Lucasye
Hacha Esports vs Isurus Gaming
RISK · OVER 21.5
▲ L5 24.0 · L20 19.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1STAND-IN? · superexL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 21.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
30%
3/10
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.63
Previous meeting · vs Isurus Gaming
No meeting with Isurus Gaming in his last 10 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
19.5
3/10 hit at 21.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Lucasye is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 49.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 22+ kills: 0.508 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.6%) or blowout (48.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.01
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
47.8%
EV+
-10.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.3
Line
21.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.8%
0 →
Learned
47.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 19.5-23.5
All players · Kills
59.6%52 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: blowout 48% (under 40%)
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 2.5 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 3/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 10 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 30.0% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 48% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 2.5 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.5 kills vs line 21.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.52, HS 65%. Next: vs Isurus Gaming, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 19.5 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: 55% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 55% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.01 vs line 21.5 → +0.51 (2.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 42.3 rounds · 2-0 54.6% · OT 6%
Performance (last 20 maps)
Kills/Map
9.75
HS/Map
6.3
K/D
0.67
KPR
0.52
ADR
65.3
KAST
62.8%
HS%
64.6%
Multi-kill
9.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)11.3 · KPR 0.554 · 20.9r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.7 · KPR 0.512 · 21.4r
Required KPR to clear0.508
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.31%
Final projected kills22.01
Isurus Gaming gives up (24 series)+6.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 21.5. Model: 52.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps48.1%
~19 kills · 37r32.5%
Normal34.8%
~25 kills · 47r63.1%
Close maps11.1%
~24 kills · 47r61.9%
Overtime6%
~28 kills · 53r76.7%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 49.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
20.9r
+9% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.4r
+1% KPR here
Total
42.3r
2-0 sweep54.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)17.1%
Overtime6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)48.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21.5 (Over) · avg 19.5 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
21.5
Nearby lines
| 19.5 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
| 20.5 Over | 50.5% | below BE |
| 21.5 Over | 47.8% | OFFERED |
| 22.5 Over | 45% | below BE |
| 23.5 Over | 40.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 21.5
Line movement
first 21.5→offno change
- Pulled21.5Oct 23, 08:12 AM
- First seen21.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
68.8%
K/D
0.82
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
5.7
KPR
0.34
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.39
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.53
HS%
71%
K/D
0.67
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
9.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
82.1%
K/D
0.7
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
7.5
KPR
0.38
HS%
40%
K/D
0.48
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.53
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | DAMAJUANA | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | A NATA | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Martians | 21 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 16-12 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Procyon | 7 Anubis 2-13 | 6 Ancient 2-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2024-11-22 | LaChampionsLiga | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 20 Ancient 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2024-11-20 | 9z Academy | 13 Ancient 8-13 | 2 Anubis 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2024-11-19 | MIBR Academy | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2024-11-01 | 9z Academy | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2024-10-30 | MIBR Academy | 7 Nuke 2-13 | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2024-10-29 | JOGA DE TERNO | 11 Nuke 2-13 | 5 Ancient 2-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
