CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.17
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.4%
Edge
+0.7
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.51
Hit
50%
EV+
-13.4%
Edge
+0.5
L10
30%
forsyy
AWPer
forsyy
Metizport vs BAKS
50%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 11
BEST OVER · PP 11PP11SL11.5
≈ L5 11.8 · L20 11.4Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 11 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
33%
6/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.64
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
11.3
1/4 hit at 11
Online · this match
11.5
5/14 hit at 11
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm forsyy is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~36 kills at 33.8% HS): 0.768 KPR over ~42 rounds. His Kills line is 32.5: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73.5%) or blowout (16.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.51
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
50%
EV+
-13.4%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.4
Line
11
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50%
+7.7 →
Learned
57.7%
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9-13
All players · Headshots
58.7%104 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
  • L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 33.3% at this line
  • Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
  • Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 33.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.2 headshots vs line 11.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 34%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 11.2 against a 11.0 line

Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds

  • High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 11.51 vs line 11 → +0.51 (4.6%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
  • • Expected 42.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.92
HS/Map
5.72
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.67
ADR
68.3
KAST
76.1%
HS%
33.8%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)5.8 · KPR 0.76 · 22.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)5.6 · KPR 0.824 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.768
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.52
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.45%
Final projected kills33.67
× realistic HS% (33.8%)11.51
BAKS gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11. Model: 57.6% before the safety haircut.
34567891011121314151617181920212223line 11
Lopsided maps16.5%
~10 HS · 36r26.9%
Normal54.4%
~11 HS · 41r42.2%
Close maps8.4%
~12 HS · 45r57%
Overtime20.7%
~14 HS · 51r72.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
HLTV #59VRS #67HLTV #99VRS #97
Metizport 73%27% BAKS
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
22.3r
+5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.1r
+14% KPR here
Total
42.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.5%

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Over) · avg 11.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
9 Over65.9%
10 Over60.6%
11 Over50%OFFERED
12 Over39.2%below BE
13 Over28.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 11→11no change
  1. First seen11
    Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
33.5%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.8
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.33
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
18.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.24
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.34
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.48
HS%
45.2%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
37.1%
K/D
1.25
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-22Sangal8 Cache 16-144 Nuke 17-1912SplitOver ✓OT
2026-10-21GenOne4 Cache 13-314 Nuke 13-218WOver ✓BO
2026-10-20ex-RUSTEC5 Anubis 13-73 Nuke 13-98WUnder ✗
2026-10-07K273 Nuke 13-117 Mirage 8-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-27Inner Circle Academy5 Anubis 13-96 Nuke 13-911WUnder ✗
2026-09-26aimclub4 Mirage 13-66 Inferno 7-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-25HAVU6 Nuke 8-137 Inferno 13-613SplitOver ✓
2026-09-25Optibet6 Ancient 9-135 Nuke 13-811SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-14Nemiga7 Mirage 14-163 Nuke 8-1310LUnder ✗OT
2026-09-13ex-Zero Tenacity5 Cache 13-64 Nuke 14-169SplitUnder ✗OT
2026-09-11Lavked5 Inferno 13-1110 Mirage 16-1415WOver ✓OT
2026-09-059INE15 Nuke 25-237 Ancient 13-1122WOver ✓OT
2026-09-04Sashi9 Inferno 16-136 Cache 16-1315WOver ✓OT
2026-09-02Walczaki4 Inferno 13-64 Anubis 13-98WUnder ✗
2026-09-01PCIFIC4 Inferno 8-134 Nuke 13-98SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-31ASTRAL2 Cache 9-136 Nuke 13-88SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-31PCIFIC4 Nuke 13-77 Inferno 13-711WUnder ✗
2026-08-28Bushido Wildcats3 Mirage 9-134 Nuke 4-137LUnder ✗BO
KILLS · HEADSHOTS · MAPS 1-2

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