HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.4
Hit
51.6%
EV+
-3.4%
Edge
-1.1
L10
50%
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Rifler
Techno4k
The Mongolz vs Aurora Gaming
RISK · UNDER 14.5
UD14.5
▲ L5 16.6 · L20 14.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.95
Previous meeting · vs Aurora Gaming
No meeting with Aurora Gaming in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.5
10/18 hit at 14.5
Online
13
1/2 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Techno4K is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 28.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 58.3% HS): below 0.62 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.4
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
51.6%
EV+
-3.4%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.6%
0 →
Learned
51.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
40.8%414 picks
This player
40%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 40.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 28% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 2.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.4 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 58%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.4 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.4 vs line 14.5 → -1.1 (-7.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 55.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.3
HS/Map
7.17
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.57
ADR
66.4
KAST
71.4%
HS%
58.3%
Multi-kill
13%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.6 · KPR 0.597 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)6.8 · KPR 0.562 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.62
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.95%
Final projected kills22.98
× realistic HS% (58.3%)13.4
Aurora Gaming gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 61% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~11 HS · 34r83%
Normal48.8%
~14 HS · 42r58%
Close maps14.7%
~14 HS · 43r53.6%
Overtime7.8%
~16 HS · 49r34.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 28.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 28% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Inferno
19.1r
+8% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep55.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 15.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 35.7% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 41.7% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 51.6% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 58.5% | |
| 16.5 Under | 61.8% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
54%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.89
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.16
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.46
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.69
Cache
3 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.49
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.69
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.68
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 10 Cache 4-13 | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 4 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 4 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 7 Nuke 12-16 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 3 Cache 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 2 Inferno 8-13 | 5 Overpass 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 10 Mirage 16-14 | 3 Overpass 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | Liquid | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ |
