KillsBetter playLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.43
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.7%
Edge
+3.9
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.2
Hit
57.4%
EV+
-0.5%
Edge
+0.7
L10
60%
AWPer
regali
Eternal Fire vs JiJieHao
RISK · OVER 12.5
▲ L5 14.4 · L20 13.1Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
59%
10/17
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Low
±2.93
Previous meeting · vs JiJieHao
0/2 hit · avg 6.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 19-15 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
8
Under 12.5 ✗
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
5
Under 12.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.1
8/14 hit at 12.5
Online
13
2/3 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm regali is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~32 kills at 40.7% HS): 0.666 KPR over ~46 rounds. His Kills line is 28.5: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.1%) or blowout (19.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.2
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
57.4%
EV+
-0.5%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
46.1
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.4%
0 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
55.1%314 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 58.8% at this line
Game script fits · 46.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%) · team 56% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.8 headshots vs line 12.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 41%. Next: vs JiJieHao, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.8 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.2 vs line 12.5 → +0.7 (5.6%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.1 rounds · 2-0 52.1% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
16.03
HS/Map
6.53
K/D
1.21
KPR
0.7
ADR
71.8
KAST
75.3%
HS%
40.7%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)6.5 · KPR 0.682 · 23.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)6.7 · KPR 0.71 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.666
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.14%
Final projected kills32.43
× realistic HS% (40.7%)13.2
JiJieHao gives up (55 series)+3.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 59.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.6%
~11 HS · 39r32.2%
Normal30.9%
~12 HS · 42r41%
Close maps27.7%
~14 HS · 49r64.8%
Overtime21.8%
~16 HS · 55r78.9%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
23.3r
M2 Mirage
22.8r
+4% KPR here
Total
46.1r
2-0 sweep52.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)49.5%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 12.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 12.5 Over | 57.4% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 48% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 36.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
- Pulled11.5Oct 23, 08:42 AM
- Back on board11.5 → 11.5Oct 23, 08:14 AM
- Pulled11.5Oct 23, 08:02 AM
- Moved down12.5 → 11.5Oct 22, 07:28 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
45.6%
K/D
1.21
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
46.9%
K/D
1.21
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
28.6%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
37%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.82
HS%
38.9%
K/D
1.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Cache 14-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 4 Cache 13-1 | 11 Dust2 22-20 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Dust2 4-13 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 6 Dust2 19-15 | 2 Mirage 11-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 8 Mirage 12-16 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 2 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 10 Cache 13-6 | 7 Anubis 19-17 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 7 Cache 4-13 | 4 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | WBT | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 6 Cache 16-14 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | GenOne | 13 Cache 13-9 | 8 Dust2 13-2 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | NT | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 6 Cache 16-13 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
