KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.2
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
+1.7
L10
60%
Loading…
Rifler
Mail09
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · OVER 30.5
PP30.5
≈ L5 32.6 · L20 32.4Risk · Edge +1.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
61%
11/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.46
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
30
2/4 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
33.1
9/14 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MaiL09 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.719 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (58.7%) or blowout (16.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.2
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Rating
3.7/10
Exp. rounds
42.4
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
-0.5 →
Learned
53.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
53.7%356 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 73% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 61.1% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 42.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 73% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.8 kills vs line 33.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 67%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.8 against a 33.0 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.2 vs line 30.5 → +1.7 (5.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 42.4 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.19
HS/Map
10.78
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.73
ADR
76.5
KAST
74.7%
HS%
66.6%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)16.4 · KPR 0.728 · 22.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)16.3 · KPR 0.804 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.719
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.15%
Final projected kills32.76
BAKS gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 53.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.5%
~27 kills · 36r25.2%
Normal54.4%
~31 kills · 41r51%
Close maps8.4%
~35 kills · 45r73.9%
Overtime20.7%
~39 kills · 51r91.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 73% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
22.3r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.1r
+2% KPR here
Total
42.4r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 32.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 60.6% | |
| 29.5 Over | 57.4% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 50.3% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 46.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 33.5→30.5-3
- Back on board32 → 30.5Oct 25, 09:48 PM
- Pulled32Oct 25, 11:59 AM
- Moved down33 → 32Oct 25, 12:20 AM
- Moved down33.5 → 33Oct 24, 09:10 PM
- First seen33.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
64%
K/D
1.28
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.5%
K/D
1.2
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.54
HS%
54%
K/D
0.89
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.89
HS%
71.9%
K/D
1.78
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
82.9%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 14 Cache 16-14 | 28 Nuke 17-19 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 16 Cache 13-3 | 11 Nuke 13-2 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 17 Anubis 13-7 | 22 Nuke 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 16 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 15 Anubis 13-9 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 19 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 16 Inferno 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 22 Ancient 9-13 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 21 Mirage 14-16 | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Cache 13-6 | 25 Nuke 14-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 22 Mirage 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 35 Nuke 25-23 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 24 Inferno 16-13 | 15 Cache 16-13 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 25 Anubis 13-9 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 5 Cache 9-13 | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 19 Inferno 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 3 Nuke 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
