CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.56
Hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.1%
Edge
+2.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.11
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.2%
Edge
+1.6
L10
60%
sh1ro
AWPer
sh1ro
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
60%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 10.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP10.5UD10.5
▼ L5 9.4 · L20 11.4
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.21
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.4
12/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm sh1ro is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~30 kills at 36.1% HS): 0.657 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (46.7%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.11
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
10.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.2%
0 →
Learned
60.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
51.3%154 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: sh1ro is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +1.6 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 67% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.9 headshots vs line 11.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 36%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 10.9 against a 11.0 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    MIXED
    The call
    PASS
    Value
    THIN
    • • Model 12.11 vs line 10.5 → +1.61 (15.3%)
    • • Form L5 20% · L10 60% over this line
    • • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
    • • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 46.7% · OT 7.8%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    15.8
    HS/Map
    5.7
    K/D
    1.29
    KPR
    0.74
    ADR
    75.8
    KAST
    73.7%
    HS%
    36.1%
    Multi-kill
    17.5%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Anubis)6 · KPR 0.732 · 22.7r
    Map 2 (Ancient)6.1 · KPR 0.792 · 21.6r
    Required KPR to clear0.657
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.71
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.46%
    Final projected kills33.56
    × realistic HS% (36.1%)12.11
    BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
    Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 64.8% before the safety haircut.
    34567891011121314151617181920212223line 10.5
    Lopsided maps20.5%
    ~10 HS · 37r43.8%
    Normal44.5%
    ~12 HS · 44r65.3%
    Close maps27.2%
    ~13 HS · 47r73.9%
    Overtime7.8%
    ~15 HS · 53r85.5%
    Match context
    Oct 24, 5:40 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
    HLTV #1VRS #3HLTV #9VRS #7
    Team Spirit 67%33% BetBoom
    Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
    Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
    Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 67% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
    M1 Anubis
    22.7r
    -3% KPR here
    M2 Ancient
    21.6r
    +5% KPR here
    Total
    44.3r
    2-0 sweep46.7%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
    Overtime7.8%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 10.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
    10.5
    Nearby lines
    8.5 Over66.2%
    9.5 Over65%
    10.5 Over60.2%OFFERED
    11.5 Over51.2%below BE
    12.5 Over40.8%below BE
    Break-even per leg: 57.7%
    Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
    Line movement
    first 11→10.5-0.5
    1. Moved down11 → 10.5
      Oct 24, 04:12 PM
    2. Back on board11 → 11
      Oct 24, 04:06 PM
    3. Pulled11
      Oct 24, 05:03 AM
    4. First seen11
      Oct 23, 07:00 PM
    Map stats
    Dust2
    12 maps
    Kills
    15.7
    KPR
    0.72
    HS%
    37.2%
    K/D
    1.29
    Cache
    7 maps
    Kills
    13.4
    KPR
    0.64
    HS%
    37.2%
    K/D
    1.12
    Mirage
    7 maps
    Kills
    15.1
    KPR
    0.72
    HS%
    35.8%
    K/D
    1.16
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    17.3
    KPR
    0.8
    HS%
    32.7%
    K/D
    1.62
    Anubis
    5 maps
    Kills
    16.6
    KPR
    0.71
    HS%
    36.1%
    K/D
    1.34
    Nuke
    3 maps
    Kills
    19
    KPR
    0.76
    HS%
    36.8%
    K/D
    1.33
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-11Aurora8 Mirage 9-134 Anubis 6-1312LOver ✓
    2026-10-10MOUZ5 Dust2 7-135 Mirage 13-510SplitUnder ✗BO
    2026-10-09Falcons6 Mirage 13-84 Anubis 13-1010WUnder ✗
    2026-10-07M803 Dust2 13-65 Cache 13-108WUnder ✗
    2026-10-061win3 Cache 5-134 Anubis 9-137LUnder ✗BO
    2026-10-05MOUZ8 Dust2 5-134 Mirage 11-1312LOver ✓BO
    2026-10-04PARIVISION7 Ancient 11-136 Dust2 13-613SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-03ShindeN8 Dust2 11-133 Nuke 13-1111SplitOver ✓
    2026-09-06MOUZ8 Dust2 13-87 Mirage 11-1315SplitOver ✓
    2026-09-05Falcons6 Nuke 13-85 Ancient 13-1111WOver ✓
    2026-08-31FURIA5 Ancient 13-107 Cache 13-512WOver ✓BO
    2026-08-28G22 Dust2 13-69 Cache 13-911WOver ✓
    2026-08-26DENDELE5 Ancient 13-85 Cache 13-710WUnder ✗
    2026-08-23FUT4 Cache 10-139 Anubis 16-1313SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-08-22Legacy4 Dust2 13-77 Ancient 13-911WOver ✓
    2026-08-21Vitality9 Anubis 13-1112 Nuke 14-1621SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-08-20B84 Dust2 13-95 Mirage 13-99WUnder ✗
    2026-08-15BIG2 Cache 9-138 Dust2 13-1010SplitUnder ✗
    2026-08-13Luminosity5 Ancient 13-37 Dust2 19-1512WOver ✓OTBO
    2026-08-02MOUZ7 Dust2 8-133 Mirage 4-1310LUnder ✗BO
    CS2 Lab is 21+

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