KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.89
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+11.6%
Edge
+2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.66
Hit
67%
EV+
+25.3%
Edge
+3.2
L10
70%
Rifler
tAk
Brute vs INOX Division
LEAN · OVER 31.5
BEST OVER · PP 31PP31UD31.5SL31.5
▼ L5 30.8 · L20 32.1
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.61
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
32.3
4/6 hit at 31.5
Online · this match
32
7/14 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tAk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.7 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.89
Raw edge
+2.4
Cons. hit
59.7%
EV+
+11.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.7%
0 →
Learned
59.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
54.2%271 picks
This player
0%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.4 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 45.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 41% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.4 kills vs line 30.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 55%. Next: vs INOX Division, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.4 against a 30.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 33.89 vs line 31.5 → +2.39 (7.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
8.9
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.1
KAST
76.5%
HS%
55.5%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.9 · KPR 0.798 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)17.6 · KPR 0.732 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.7
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.33
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.43%
Final projected kills34.48
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~29 kills · 38r28.2%
Normal48.7%
~33 kills · 44r59.7%
Close maps14.1%
~36 kills · 48r77.7%
Overtime16.7%
~41 kills · 54r92.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.1r
+11% KPR here
M2 Inferno
23.9r
+1% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 32.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 65.4% | |
| 30.5 Over | 62.8% | |
| 31.5 Over | 59.7% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 56% | |
| 33.5 Over | 52% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 30.5→31.5+1
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 02:08 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 02:02 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:57 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:57 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:56 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:56 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:52 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:50 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:30 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:28 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:26 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:25 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:25 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:24 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:24 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:20 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:18 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:12 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:10 PM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 01:06 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.82
HS%
53.4%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
62%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
53.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.7%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 9 Cache 8-13 | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 12 Nuke 13-4 | 12 Mirage 3-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 17 Anubis 13-8 | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 22 Inferno 19-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 18 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 26 Inferno 16-13 | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Anubis 10-13 | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 17 Mirage 13-1 | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 16 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Cache 16-12 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 21 Anubis 16-14 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Anubis 13-8 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | Permitta | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 20 Mirage 10-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-17 | Nexus | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 25 Inferno 19-15 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | G2 Ares | 16 Ancient 13-3 | 18 Cache 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | G2 Ares | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Inferno 1-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | HOTU | 31 Mirage 13-8 | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 47 | W | Over ✓ |
