KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.95
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
+3.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.1
Hit
59.1%
EV+
+2.4%
Edge
+3.1
L10
50%
Rifler
Rkzinho
paiN vs Galorys
PLAYABLE · OVER 28.5
▼ L5 28.0 · L20 29.2
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±6.26
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
1/1 hit · avg 35 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 13-9 · Dust2 13-5 · W
35
Over 28.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.6
5/9 hit at 28.5
Online
28.9
5/9 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Rkzinho is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.621 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.6%) or blowout (29.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.95
Raw edge
+3.5
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Rating
7.1/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
28.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
61%
0 →
Learned
61%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.7%406 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · 45.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 28.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 63%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.95 vs line 28.5 → +3.45 (12.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 52.6% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.61
HS/Map
9.19
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.7
ADR
73.3
KAST
74.8%
HS%
62.9%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.4 · KPR 0.75 · 22r
Map 2 (Anubis)15.6 · KPR 0.658 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.86%
Final projected kills31.95
Galorys gives up (77 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 68% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.5%
~27 kills · 39r36.5%
Normal36.9%
~33 kills · 47r76.1%
Close maps22.6%
~34 kills · 49r82.8%
Overtime11%
~38 kills · 55r94.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 1:00 PM CTLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.9r
-6% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep52.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)33.6%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 27.5 Over | 63.7% | |
| 28.5 Over | 61% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 58.8% | |
| 30.5 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 01:00 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:12 AM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:11 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:11 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.77
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.28
Cache
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.75
HS%
56.5%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.5
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
73.7%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 3 Inferno 3-13 | 16 Anubis 16-14 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 12 Cache 7-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 23 Dust2 13-7 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 8 Anubis 4-13 | 23 Cache 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 19 Cache 13-9 | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 13-7 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 22 Anubis 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 16 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 23 Dust2 16-13 | 18 Anubis 16-19 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Inferno 11-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 10 Nuke 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Nuke 3-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 23 Mirage 14-16 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 18 Cache 10-13 | 14 Anubis 13-4 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 13 Cache 7-13 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Cache 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ |
