KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.03
Hit
43.3%
EV+
-19.1%
Edge
-0.5
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.96
Hit
54.4%
EV+
+1.9%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
Kind0
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · OVER 12.5
▼ L5 11.6 · L20 12.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
42%
8/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.84
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
12.4
8/19 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kind0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~26 kills at 49.8% HS): 0.574 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50.9%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.96
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
+1.9%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.7
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.4%
0 →
Learned
54.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
54.3%322 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 42.1% at this line
Game script fits · 43.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.1 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 50%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 12.1 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 12.96 vs line 12.5 → +0.46 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.7 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.05
HS/Map
6
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.6
ADR
71.6
KAST
71.5%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)6.4 · KPR 0.604 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.5 · KPR 0.598 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.574
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.88%
Final projected kills26.03
× realistic HS% (49.8%)12.96
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 56.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~11 HS · 37r30.2%
Normal41.3%
~13 HS · 44r53.8%
Close maps30.9%
~14 HS · 47r62.4%
Overtime5.6%
~16 HS · 53r77.6%
Match context
Oct 23, 3:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
21.6r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
Total
43.7r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 12.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.4% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63% | |
| 12.5 Over | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 40.3% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 30.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
- Pulled12.5Oct 23, 03:17 AM
- First seen12.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.2%
K/D
1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
43.8%
K/D
0.76
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 8 Cache 13-16 | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 3 Cache 11-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 0 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 7 Mirage 13-7 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 5 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Dust2 13-2 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 2 Mirage 7-13 | 9 Cache 13-2 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 3 Inferno 13-7 | 7 Dust2 14-16 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 5 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 6 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 12 Cache 13-8 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
