KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.28
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+3.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.02
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
Kursy
Envy vs GamerLegion
PLAYABLE · OVER 30
BEST OVER · PP 30PP30UD30.5SL30.5
▼ L5 30.4 · L20 31.9
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.43
Previous meeting · vs GamerLegion
0/1 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-27 · 1win Private Club 1
Ancient 5-13 · Dust2 13-11 · Split
27
Under 30 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
34
5/11 hit at 30
Online
29.1
4/8 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kursy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.632 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (24.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.28
Raw edge
+3.3
Cons. hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
7/10
Exp. rounds
47.5
Line
30
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
58.4%
0 →
Learned
58.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
54.7%417 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 47.4% at this line
Game script fits · 47.5 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 25% (under 40%) · team 61% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 30.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 59%. Next: vs GamerLegion, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 33.28 vs line 30 → +3.28 (10.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 47.5 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
9.47
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.72
ADR
79.2
KAST
72.9%
HS%
59.3%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)18.5 · KPR 0.735 · 25r
Map 2 (Ancient)14.8 · KPR 0.655 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.632
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.50%
Final projected kills33.28
GamerLegion gives up (65 series)-0.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 69.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.6%
~28 kills · 40r31%
Normal43.2%
~33 kills · 47r63.3%
Close maps12.4%
~36 kills · 51r79.6%
Overtime19.8%
~40 kills · 57r93%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 PM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 61% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
25r
+5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.5r
-7% KPR here
Total
47.5r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 22 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 32.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 65.4% | |
| 29 Over | 61.9% | |
| 30 Over | 58.4% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 55.6% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 52.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 10:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.76
HS%
56.6%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.8%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.69
HS%
60%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
59.4%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | FaZe | 12 Ancient 5-13 | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 20 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Dust2 13-1 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | BASEMENT BOYS | 19 Ancient 10-13 | 16 Cache 8-13 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | MIBR | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | HEROIC | 20 Cache 14-16 | 14 Inferno 13-8 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | GamerLegion | 10 Ancient 5-13 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Alliance | 20 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 22 Nuke 14-16 | 15 Cache 4-13 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-23 | Luminosity | 17 Cache 13-11 | 31 Dust2 19-16 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-22 | Inner Circle | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | 3DMAX | 29 Inferno 16-14 | 23 Ancient 14-16 | 52 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | 3DMAX | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 3DMAX | 23 Cache 13-16 | 12 Nuke 13-3 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-09 | 3DMAX | 15 Cache 13-2 | 23 Inferno 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 21 Anubis 17-19 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 28 Cache 19-16 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Inferno 13-0 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | MIBR | 13 Cache 8-13 | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 17 Cache 13-8 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
