KillsLean
Line
23.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.03
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
-3.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.24
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-1.8%
Edge
-2.3
L10
60%
Rifler · IGL
FalleN
FURIA Esports vs DENDELE CS
LEAN · UNDER 23.5
BEST UNDER · PP 24.5PP24.5UD23.5
▲ L5 25.2 · L20 21.1LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 23.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.87
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE CS
No meeting with DENDELE CS in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.1
13/20 hit at 23.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm FalleN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 82.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 23 kills or fewer: below 0.573 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
20.03
Raw edge
-3.5
Cons. hit
50.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Rating
1.3/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
23.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
50.1%
0 →
Learned
50.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 21.5-25.5
All players · Kills
42.4%158 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 83% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 41.0 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 83% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 2.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.0 kills vs line 23.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 51%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.0 against a 23.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 20.03 vs line 23.5 → -3.47 (-14.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 60.9% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.53
HS/Map
5.38
K/D
0.75
KPR
0.51
ADR
59.8
KAST
71%
HS%
51.1%
Multi-kill
12.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.6 · KPR 0.525 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)9.4 · KPR 0.461 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.573
Base kills (Maps 1-2)20.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.93%
Final projected kills20.03
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 23.5. Model: 69.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32%
~17 kills · 34r86.9%
Normal37.2%
~21 kills · 43r68.1%
Close maps20.8%
~21 kills · 44r64.8%
Overtime10%
~24 kills · 50r48%
Match context
Oct 24, 11:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 82.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 83% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.6r
-13% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep60.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23.5 (Under) · avg 22.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
23.5
Nearby lines
| 21.5 Under | 43.6% | below BE |
| 22.5 Under | 47% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 50.1% | OFFERED |
| 24.5 Under | 53.1% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 55.6% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 23.5
Line movement
first 23.5→23.5no change
- First seen23.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.78
Cache
7 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.42
HS%
47%
K/D
0.62
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.37
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.53
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
45.3%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.56
HS%
47.5%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 19 Ancient 16-19 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 12 Cache 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-5 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 15 Nuke 13-7 | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Mirage 9-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 3 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 13-5 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 5 Cache 5-13 | 10 Anubis 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 13 Cache 13-8 | 20 Mirage 16-19 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 9 Ancient 14-16 | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 12 Cache 11-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 11-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ |
