KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.78
Hit
39.3%
EV+
-26.4%
Edge
+0.3
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.17
Hit
40.2%
EV+
-30.3%
Edge
-0.3
L10
20%
Rifler
soulfly
Eternal Fire vs Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 15.5
PP15.5
▼ L5 16.6 · L20 17.4LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
35%
6/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
Previous meeting · vs Nemesis
No meeting with Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.3
4/14 hit at 15.5
Online
18
2/3 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm soulfly is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 87.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.17
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
40.2%
EV+
-30.3%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
47.2%585 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.6 headshots vs line 14.5 (9/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.6 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.17 vs line 15.5 → -0.33 (-2.1%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
16.53
HS/Map
8.71
K/D
1.03
ADR
72.5
KAST
71.7%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Nemesis gives up (35 series)-13.9% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 16.6 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Line movement
first 14.5→15.5+1
- Moved up14.5 → 15.5Oct 27, 10:14 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 27, 08:08 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.8
K/D
0.88
Cache
8 maps
Kills
18
K/D
1.3
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
18
K/D
1.04
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17.2
K/D
0.95
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
14
K/D
1.02
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
19
K/D
0.95
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 5 Mirage 10-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 11 Cache 16-12 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 14 Ancient 22-20 | 6 Inferno 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Cache 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 8 Cache 13-1 | 8 Dust2 22-20 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 12 Dust2 19-15 | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 17 Cache 13-7 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 2 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 13 Cache 13-6 | 11 Anubis 19-17 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 4 Cache 4-13 | 8 Anubis 16-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 2-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
