CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.91
Hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.0%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.21
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%
dexter
Rifler
dexter
Off Chops vs NEXVOID
50%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 17.5
PP17.5
▲ L5 16.6 · L20 15.5Risk · Edge -1.3 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.46
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 22 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 17-19 · Inferno 9-13 · L
22
Over 17.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.5
7/13 hit at 17.5
Online
13.3
6/6 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm dexter is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 54.2% HS): below 0.739 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.21
Raw edge
-1.3
Cons. hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
3.3/10
Exp. rounds
43.7
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.4%
0 →
Learned
50.4%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
43.8%347 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 43.7 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 54%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 17.5 line

Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 16.21 vs line 17.5 → -1.29 (-7.4%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 43.7 rounds · 2-0 58% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.32
HS/Map
7.76
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.2
KAST
70.9%
HS%
54.2%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.6 · KPR 0.699 · 23r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.6 · KPR 0.685 · 20.7r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.15%
Final projected kills29.91
× realistic HS% (54.2%)16.21
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 59.3% before the safety haircut.
4567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132line 17.5
Lopsided maps27.3%
~14 HS · 37r80.2%
Normal57.9%
~17 HS · 46r57.2%
Close maps9%
~17 HS · 47r54%
Overtime5.8%
~20 HS · 53r38%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #131VRS #122HLTV #77VRS #72
Off Chops NEXVOID
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Dust2
23r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.7r
-5% KPR here
Total
43.7r
2-0 sweep58%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.3%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
15.5 Under41.7%below BE
16.5 Under46%below BE
17.5 Under50.4%OFFERED
18.5 Under54.4%below BE
19.5 Under57.8%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
  1. First seen17.5
    Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.67
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.93
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.87
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
40.4%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.6%
K/D
0.85
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
1.2
HS%
61.1%
K/D
2.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-26Alter Ego7 Inferno 11-131 Ancient 3-138LUnder ✓BO
2026-10-26Ground Zero7 Dust2 13-83 Anubis 13-710WUnder ✓
2026-10-18NEXVOID13 Dust2 17-199 Inferno 9-1322LOver ✗OT
2026-10-17Rooster10 Nuke 13-711 Cache 13-221WOver ✗BO
2026-10-16Abyssal13 Dust2 13-79 Inferno 13-322WOver ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero15 Dust2 13-67 Anubis 11-1322SplitOver ✗
2026-10-16FlyQuest10 Dust2 10-1310 Inferno 16-1920LOver ✗OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest6 Inferno 4-134 Dust2 9-1310LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER10 Inferno 13-84 Dust2 13-914WUnder ✓
2026-09-27FlyQuest5 Inferno 2-138 Ancient 4-1313LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER8 Ancient 13-46 Dust2 13-314WUnder ✓BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER8 Nuke 13-78 Inferno 13-716WUnder ✓
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER11 Dust2 13-813 Anubis 10-1324SplitOver ✗
2026-07-18FlyQuest6 Dust2 10-135 Nuke 1-1311LUnder ✓BO
2026-07-18THUNDER dOWNUNDER10 Dust2 13-106 Anubis 13-716WUnder ✓
2026-07-17Rooster10 Nuke 13-03 Anubis 13-413WUnder ✓BO
2026-06-04THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Anubis 10-137 Inferno 3-1311LUnder ✓BO
2026-05-27SemperFi5 Dust2 9-138 Nuke 10-1313LUnder ✓
2026-05-16Lynn Vision9 Dust2 13-96 Nuke 10-1315SplitUnder ✓
CS2 Lab is 21+

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