KillsBetter playLean
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.88
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.6%
Edge
+3.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.33
Hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.5%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%
Rifler
syph0
Nemiga vs DENDELE
LEAN · OVER 29.5
BEST OVER · PP 29.5PP29.5UD30.5
▲ L5 36.0 · L20 32.0
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.64
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
35.3
5/7 hit at 29.5
Online
30.2
7/13 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SYPH0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 58.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.629 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.1%) or blowout (22.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.88
Raw edge
+3.4
Cons. hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
46.9
Line
29.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.6%
0 →
Learned
61.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
55%500 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 46.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%) · team 60% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.9 kills vs line 29.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 53%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 34.9 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 32.88 vs line 29.5 → +3.38 (11.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.9 rounds · 2-0 56.1% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.74
ADR
82.3
KAST
72.6%
HS%
52.7%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)17.3 · KPR 0.667 · 25.9r
Map 2 (Cache)15.6 · KPR 0.739 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.629
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills32.88
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 63.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.8%
~28 kills · 39r38%
Normal50.5%
~33 kills · 47r61.5%
Close maps10%
~35 kills · 50r71.8%
Overtime16.7%
~39 kills · 56r84.8%
Match context
Oct 27, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
25.9r
-7% KPR here
M2 Cache
21r
+3% KPR here
Total
46.9r
2-0 sweep56.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 34.9 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 64.6% | |
| 28.5 Over | 62.8% | |
| 29.5 Over | 61.6% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 55.2% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 52.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 29→29.5+0.5
- Moved up29 → 29.5Oct 26, 11:14 PM
- First seen29Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.9
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.6%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.56
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.77
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
1.01
HS%
64.7%
K/D
1.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Aurora | 22 Mirage 14-16 | 8 Anubis 4-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-25 | BetBoom | 8 Anubis 3-13 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 47 Ancient 25-23 | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 59 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 8 Cache 7-13 | 31 Nuke 16-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 11 Cache 13-11 | 30 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 20 Cache 13-6 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 18 Mirage 16-12 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 25 Mirage 22-20 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 16 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 15 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 16 Nuke 13-2 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 24 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Cache 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 18 Mirage 16-14 | 21 Nuke 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 27 Cache 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 16 Cache 13-4 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
