KillsBetter playTake
Line
39.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
32.04
Hit
63.4%
EV+
+18.6%
Edge
-7.5
L10
80%
HeadshotsTake
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.86
Hit
62.8%
EV+
+17.6%
Edge
-4.6
L10
80%
Rifler
donk
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
TAKE · UNDER 25.5
BEST UNDER · UD 25.5PP25UD25.5
▼ L5 21.6 · L20 24.6LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.78
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.6
11/20 hit at 25.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm donk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 79.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 25 HS or fewer (under ~40 kills at 65.1% HS): below 0.984 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
20.86
Raw edge
-4.6
Cons. hit
62.8%
EV+
+17.6%
Rating
9.2/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
25.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
62.8%
0 →
Learned
62.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Headshots
100%4 picks
This player
100%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 83.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 39.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 80% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.9 headshots vs line 24.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 65%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.9 against a 24.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 20.86 vs line 25.5 → -4.64 (-18.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 60.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18.93
HS/Map
12.32
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.8
ADR
85.6
KAST
72.3%
HS%
65.1%
Multi-kill
22%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.8 · KPR 0.829 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)10.1 · KPR 0.792 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.984
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills32.04
× realistic HS% (65.1%)20.86
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 83.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~18 HS · 33r96.2%
Normal40.6%
~21 HS · 40r83.2%
Close maps27.2%
~22 HS · 43r75.2%
Overtime7.8%
~26 HS · 49r51.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
M2 Mirage
19.7r
-4% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep60.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 22.9 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 54.5% | |
| 24.5 Under | 58.1% | |
| 25.5 Under | 62.8% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 64.1% | |
| 27.5 Under | 64.9% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 23
Line movement
first 24.5→25.5+1
- Moved up24.5 → 25.5Oct 23, 10:10 AM
- First seen24.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.81
HS%
61.9%
K/D
1.16
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
63.4%
K/D
1.06
Cache
7 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.95
HS%
69.6%
K/D
1.41
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.97
HS%
61.9%
K/D
1.47
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
20.6
KPR
0.88
HS%
68%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
22.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Cache 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 11 Cache 5-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Nuke 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 16 Cache 10-13 | 19 Anubis 16-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 15 Cache 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 17 Dust2 19-15 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
