KillsBetter playTake
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.34
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+15.6%
Edge
-6.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsTake
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.38
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+12.1%
Edge
-3.1
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
Mercury
TyLoo vs FUT Esports
TAKE · UNDER 25.5
BEST UNDER · UD 25.5PP24.5UD25.5SL25.5
▼ L5 21.6 · L20 22.9LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
56%
9/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.39
Previous meeting · vs FUT Esports
No meeting with FUT Esports in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.8
7/11 hit at 25.5
Online
27.6
2/5 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Mercury is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 21.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.68 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
19.34
Raw edge
-6.2
Cons. hit
61.8%
EV+
+15.6%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.5
Line
25.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
61.8%
0 →
Learned
61.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
44.8%259 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 80.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 56.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT 1% (under 22%) · 37.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 22% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 4.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.3 kills vs line 25.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 64%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.3 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 19.34 vs line 25.5 → -6.16 (-24.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 17 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 37.5 rounds · 2-0 63.4% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.47
HS/Map
7.34
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.58
ADR
64.3
KAST
74.8%
HS%
64%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9.2 · KPR 0.522 · 18r
Map 2 (Inferno)10.2 · KPR 0.536 · 19.5r
Required KPR to clear0.68
Base kills (Maps 1-2)19.84
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.52%
Final projected kills19.34
FUT Esports gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 80.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38.3%
~16 kills · 32r91%
Normal49.7%
~21 kills · 41r74.5%
Close maps10.6%
~21 kills · 41r75.4%
Overtime1.4%
~24 kills · 47r60.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 21.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 17 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 22% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.5r
-1% KPR here
Total
37.5r
2-0 sweep63.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 23.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 59% | |
| 24.5 Under | 60.6% | |
| 25.5 Under | 61.8% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 62.7% | |
| 27.5 Under | 64.2% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 22
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.96
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.75
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.43
HS%
80%
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.3
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.35
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-2 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 18 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 23 Inferno 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 17 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-08 | 9z | 10 Overpass 10-13 | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ |
