KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.95
Hit
49.7%
EV+
-13.9%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.65
Hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%
Rifler
luchov
9z vs TYLOO
RISK · OVER 18.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP18.5UD18.5
▲ L5 19.8 · L20 17.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 18.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±5.97
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/2 hit · avg 20.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
25
Over 18.5 ✓
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 7-13 · Split
16
Under 18.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.3
9/20 hit at 18.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm luchov is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~31 kills at 61.2% HS): 0.798 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61.6%) or blowout (37.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.65
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.9
Line
18.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.2%
0 →
Learned
50.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
55.3%190 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 47.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Game script fits: 37.9 exp. rounds (need 38+)
- Blowout win risk — team 77% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 37.9 exp. rounds (need 38+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.4 headshots vs line 18.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 61%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.4 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.65 vs line 18.5 → +0.15 (0.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 37.9 rounds · 2-0 61.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.12
HS/Map
8.65
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.73
ADR
79.7
KAST
70.8%
HS%
61.2%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)9.2 · KPR 0.789 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.9 · KPR 0.795 · 18.6r
Required KPR to clear0.798
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.82%
Final projected kills29.48
× realistic HS% (61.2%)18.65
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18.5. Model: 47.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.5%
~16 HS · 32r26.9%
Normal44.2%
~20 HS · 41r59%
Close maps10.5%
~20 HS · 41r57.8%
Overtime7.8%
~23 HS · 47r75.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 76.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 77% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
19.3r
M2 Mirage
18.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
37.9r
2-0 sweep61.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Over) · avg 18.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Over | 61.4% | |
| 17.5 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 50.2% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Over | 44.4% | below BE |
| 20.5 Over | 39% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
Line movement
first 18.5→18.5no change
- First seen18.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.74
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.8%
K/D
0.82
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.79
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.8
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | MOUZ | 12 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 10 Cache 10-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 9 Cache 11-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-1 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 0 Inferno 3-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-2 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 10 Cache 13-3 | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 14 Ancient 17-19 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Mirage 16-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ |
